1
GU%'LPLWULMHYLü
1
mr N. Fabris
2
Histerezis efekat u ekonomskoj teoriji i praksi
Abstrakt
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je nazivala prirodnom stopom nezaposlenosti. Prema hipotezi prirodne stope
nezap
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QH]DSRVOHQRVWL VH YUDüD QD VYRM GXJRURþQL UDYQRWHåQL QLYR SULURGQX VWRSX
nezaposlenosti).
Kejnzijanci umesto prirodne stope nezaposlenosti preferiraju koncept stope
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Kada je došlo
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nezaposlenosti došlo je do pojave novih teorija – histerezis teorija – prema kojima
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Abstract
The Classical theory uses equlibrium rate of unemployment, called natural rate of
unemployment. According to the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU),
aggregate demand can influence the actual rate of unemployment in short run, only. After
the adjustment of inflatory expectations, unemployment returns to its long-run
equilibrium (natural rate).
Many Keynesians have preferred to use non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment
(NAIRU). The crucial difference is because the NRU is a market-clearing concept,
whereas the NAIRU is not market clearing concept and relates to theories of imperfect
competition in the labor market.
1
GU %RMDQ 'LPLWULMHYLü GRFHQW (NRQRPVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG
2
mr Nikola Fabris, asistent, Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd
2
The simultaneous rise in the actual and equilibrium rates of unemployment has
led to new explanation which allows aggregate demand to influence the NRU (or
NAIRU). According to hysteresis theories the natural rate depends on the history of the
equilibrium rate.
1. Hipoteza o prirodnoj stopi nezaposlenosti i stopi nezaposlenosti koja ne ubrzava
inflaciju
Klasi
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je nazivala prirodnom stopom i koja je odgovarala niskoj (stabilnoj) stopi inflacije. Prema
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pr
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.DNR VH VD SURWRNRP YUHPHQD LQIODFLRQD RþHNLYDQMD SULODJRGMDYDMX WHNXüD VWRSD
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Fišer
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SUL NRMRM MH L]EDODQVLUDQ SURWRN RG QH]DSRVOHQLK ND ]DSRVOHQLP L JGH VX RþHNLYDQMD
radnika o kretanju nadnica i cena korektna
3
. Felps definiše prirodnu stopu nezaposlenosti
k
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4
. Koncepcija o
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e
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+LSRWH]D R SULURGQRM VWRSL QH]DSRVOHQRVWL MH ELOD NOMXþQL HOHPHQW )ULGPDQRYRJ
monetarizma i bazirala se na dve fundamentalne pretpostavke:
•
u ekonomiji deluju jaki samor
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QH]DSRVOHQRVWLXYHNGXJRURþQRJUDYLWLUDWLNDUDYQRWHåQRMVWRSLQH]DSRVOHQRVWL
•
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nominalne, a ne i realne efekte.
Za monetariste je NRU = f(x), gde je x vektor realnih faktora koji
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determinanta NRU. Tome se monetaristi oštro suprostavljaju tvrdnjom da politika
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Pored ovih monetaristi navode i niz drugih faktora koji mogu uticati na nivo NRU:
mobilnost radne snage, obrazovna i kvalifikaciona struktura nezaposlenih, restriktivna
3
R. Dornbush and S. Fisher –“Macroeconomics”, 1994. g. str. 549.
4
E. Phelps – “Inflation Policy and Unemployment theory”, 1982. g. str 52.
